Celtics vs. Heat prediction, odds: 2023 NBA Eastern Conference finals picks, Game 4 best bets by proven model
Kaseya Center will be the focus of the NBA world on Tuesday evening in a surprising and unforeseen situation. The Miami Heat can earn a trip to the 2023 NBA Finals with a home win against the Boston Celtics. Miami leads the 2023 Eastern Conference finals by a 3-0 margin after a 26-point trouncing in Game 3 on Sunday. Boston must win on Tuesday to stay alive after a trio of highly disappointing performances.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as 1.5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 217 in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Celtics:
- Celtics vs. Heat spread: Heat -1.5
- Celtics vs. Heat over/under: 217 points
- Celtics vs. Heat money line: Heat -120, Celtics +100
- BOS: The Celtics are 26-22 against the spread in road games
- MIA: The Heat are 20-27-2 against the spread in home games
- Celtics vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston has strong two-way metrics in a big-picture sense. While the Celtics have struggled in the series, they ranked in the top three of the NBA in offensive rating (117.3) and defensive rating (110.6) during the regular season. On offense, Boston has a bevy of shooters, and the Celtics landed in the top eight of the league in turnover rate (13.3%) and assists per game (26.7) during the 2022-23 season. The Celtics are also scoring 54.0 points in the paint per game against Miami, and Boston has a 116.7 offensive rating in the overall playoffs.
On defense, the Celtics have found success in protecting the rim in the postseason. Boston has allowed only 19.4 free throw attempts and 42.1 points in the paint per game, and the Celtics were elite on defense during the regular season. The Celtics finished in the top six of the NBA in defensive rebound rate, opponent field goal percentage, opponent 3-point percentage and blocked shots during the regular season. See which team to pick here.
Why the Heat can cover
Jimmy Butler and the Heat are rolling in the playoffs and especially in this series. Butler is averaging 29.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game during Miami’s playoff run, and the Heat have found an impressive level on offense. The Heat are scoring well over 1.17 points per possession in the playoffs, and Miami is shooting 51.9% from the field and 47.8% from 3-point range in the series against Boston. Miami is 11-3 overall in the playoffs, including a 6-0 mark at home and continue to play extremely well on defense.
The Heat are giving up fewer than 1.11 points per possession in the playoffs, and Miami leads the entire postseason in scoring 20.3 points per game off turnovers. The Heat are generating 7.9 steals per game, including 9.3 per game in the series, and Boston is committing 15.0 turnovers per contest in the series. Miami’s 3-point defense has also been important, with opponents shooting 32.9% from long distance in the playoffs and Boston converting only 29.2% of 3-point chances in the first three games. See which team to pick here.
How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 222 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all of the value. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks and analysis at SportsLine.
So who wins Celtics vs. Heat, and which side of the spread has all of the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that is 72-38 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.