The Miami Heat look to close out the Boston Celtics in Game 4 of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday night. Dating back to the regular season, the Heat have beaten the Celtics five straight times. On May 21, Miami topped Boston 128-102 to secure a 3-0 series lead. The Heat are also 6-0 at home during the 2023 NBA playoffs. Guards Victor Oladipo (knee) and Tyler Herro (hand) are out for the Heat. 

Tipoff from Kaseya Center in Miami is at 8:30 p.m. ET. Miami is a 1-point favorite in the latest Celtics vs. Heat odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 216. Before making any Heat vs. Celtics picks, make sure you check out what proven SportsLine NBA expert Matthew Severance has to say.

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over his past 159 NBA picks, he is 104-53-1, returning more than $3,500 for $100 players. Anybody following him has seen huge returns.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Celtics vs. Heat and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Celtics:

• Heat vs. Celtics: Heat -1
• Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 216 points  
• Heat vs. Celtics money line: Heat -115, Celtics -105
• MIA: Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win 
• BOS: Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games 
• Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Celtics can cover

Guard Jaylen Brown is an athletic, downhill scorer. Brown plays phenomenal defense and uses his great lateral quickness to stay in front of ball handlers. The California product moves well without the ball and is a solid slasher. Brown ranks second on the team in points (23.1) in the 2023 NBA playoffs to go along with 5.5 rebounds and 3.4 assists. In Game 1, he finished with 22 points, nine rebounds, and five dimes.

Center Robert Williams III is a powerful and bouncy force who soars above the rim for alley-oops and boards. He also plays sound defense in the lane. The Texas A&M product has scored in double digits in three of his last five games, including in Game 1 when Williams produced 14 points and seven boards. Meanwhile, guard Derrick White is a reliable defender and knockdown shooter who logs 12.4 points per game and shoots 45% from downtown during the postseason. In Game 2, the Colorado product had 11 points and made three 3-pointers. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Guard Gabe Vincent has been a floor-spacing scorer on the perimeter. Vincent is able to create his own shot but owns a knockdown jumper from beyond the arc. The 26-year-old is third on the team in scoring (12.6) while shooting 38% from 3-point land in the 2023 NBA playoffs. In his last outing, Vincent amassed a playoff-high 29 points and went 6-of-9 from three.

Forward Caleb Martin has played extremely well off the bench. Martin uses his smooth shooting stroke to be an asset on the outside, and the Nevada product isn’t afraid to put the ball on the deck and thrives in transition. Martin logs 12.6 points and 4.9 rebounds per game in the postseason. He has dropped at least 15 points in three straight matchups, including in Game 3 when Martin totaled 18 points, four assists, and made four 3-pointers. See which team to pick here.

How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks

Severance is leaning Over on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Heat vs. Celtics spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Celtics vs. Heat, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the expert who has returned over $3,500 to $100 players over his last 159 NBA picks, and find out.